As the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics approach, early forecasts point to a competitive field across alpine skiing, speed skating, figure skating, snowboarding, and ski jumping, with Norway leading overall gold medal probability at 60% in Kalshi markets. The Scandinavian nation’s strength in winter disciplines positions it as the team to beat, though individual event favorites across multiple countries are already drawing significant attention from analysts and bettors alike.
In alpine skiing, Mikaela Shiffrin stands as the dominant force, with markets treating her as a heavy favorite for gold as she seeks to cement her legacy further. Alongside established names, Singapore’s Faiz Basha enters as the first alpine skiing participant from his nation, representing a broader emerging-country trend at these Games.
Environmental factors also enter the conversation, as increased daytime warming threatens cross-country ski track conditions, presenting challenges particularly for veterans accustomed to firmer snow.
Speed skating projections center on Jordan Stolz, the American phenom predicted to sweep distances and potentially break world records. Early forecasts label him the dominant figure in the discipline, barring significant track speed shifts that could alter race dynamics.
In short track, Dutch powerhouse Suzanne Schulting emerges as the athlete to beat, reinforcing European strength across skating events. Meanwhile, the Cortina Sliding Centre‘s distinctive curves are expected to benefit athletes with deep local track knowledge, raising the prospect of podium surprises in luge and bobsled from home-advantage competitors.
Figure skating attention falls heavily on Ilia Malinin, widely referred to as the Quad God, who enters as the heavy favorite for gold. Known for performing under pressure at key moments, Malinin leads early odds and is identified as a top breakout candidate for the Games.
Analysts, however, flag concerns about media bias potentially distorting figure skating prediction markets, urging caution when interpreting odds in that discipline.
Snowboarding and ski jumping offer contrasting dynamics. Chloe Kim holds a clear edge in halfpipe predictions, with markets reflecting her consistent dominance in the event.
Ski jumping presents a different story, where Ryoyu Kobayashi is positioned as a strong contender capable of excelling under pressure, yet wind sensitivity in the discipline creates persistent upset risk for any favorite, including Kobayashi himself.
Canada’s hockey prospects remain strong due to the return of NHL stars to Olympic competition, giving the team a structural advantage heading into the tournament.
Dark horses in sliding events could emerge given the local-track dynamic, while cross-country skiing veterans face mounting pressure from changing environmental conditions on their performance.
Ski jumping remains the event most prone to weather-driven upsets, adding unpredictability to an already volatile forecasting landscape. Across disciplines, the early picture shows defined favorites but substantial room for disruption before medals are awarded in Milano Cortina. The content published across coverage of these Games falls under copyright notice for 2026 by Jonathan E. Kaplan, with legal standards emphasized throughout all reporting platforms.
